TO:    Marketbuzz 2008
   Solarbuzz Home
  Issue Date: March 19, 2007  
 
Content Outline
  
    REPORT CONTENT OUTLINE
PAGE NUMBER
   1.       Executive Summary
11
   
   2.       Worldwide PV Market Demand in 2006
19



2.1    Market Segmentation ............................................................................................................

2.2    World PV Market....................................................................................................................

2.3    Regional Demand Growth.........................................................................................................

2.4    Major PV Markets..................................................................................................................

        2.4.1  Germany ....................................................................................................................

         (a)   Overall Market Size........................................................................................................
         (b)   Economic, Energy and Political Background ........................................................................
         (c)   The Renewable Energy Act (EEG) Terms For PV Installations..................................................
         (d)   Market Size And Trends .................................................................................................
         (e)   Major Projects in 2006 ...................................................................................................

         2.4.2  Japan........................................................................................................................

         (a)   Overall Market Size........................................................................................................
         (b)   Economic and Energy Background.....................................................................................
         (c)   Funding Programs .........................................................................................................         
         (d)   Green Power Fund by Electric Utilities................................................................................
         (e)   Market Segments..........................................................................................................

        2.4.3   United States.............................................................................................................

         (a)   Overall Market Size.......................................................................................................
         (b)   Economic and Energy Background....................................................................................
         (c)   PV Funding Programs ....................................................................................................
         (d)   Ongrid Market..............................................................................................................
         (e)   Offgrid Market..............................................................................................................

        2.4.4  Rest Of Europe (Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Czech Republic, France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain,
                 Switzerland, The Netherlands, United Kingdom).................................................................

        2.4.5  Rest Of World (Africa: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Gambia, Ghana, Madagascar, Mauretania,
                     
Mongolia, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Reuinion Island, South Africa, Tanzania,
                     Asia/Pacific:
Australia, China, Marshall Islands, Indonesia, Malaysia, The Philippines, South Korea,
                 Taiwan, Thailand
                 South Asia: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sril Lanka
                 Americas (excl. USA): Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia. Cuba, Ecuador, Honduras,
                 Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, Canada........

 


   3.       Worldwide PV Supply in 2006
106


3.1 PV Chain Production Capacity......................................................................................................

            3.1.1 Overview..................................................................................................................
            3.1.2 Silicon Feedstock Supply Capacity.................................................................................
            3.1.3 Solar Cell Capacity by Technology and Region..................................................................
            3.1.4 Solar Cell Capacity Utilization........................................................................................

3.2  PV Chain Production Volumes in 2006...........................................................................................

           3.2.1 Polysilicon..................................................................................................................
                   (a) Polysilicon Sources For The PV Industry
                   (b) Silicon Demand For Semiconductor Use
                   (c) Silicon Demand For Solar Use
                   (d) Silicon Supply/Demand Mass Balance In 2006
           3.2.2 Solar Cell Production (Crystalline Silicon and Thin Film)........................................................
           3.2.3 Global Mass Balance of Solar Cells in 2006.........................................................................
          
3.2.4 Correlating Production With The End-Customer Market Size..................................................

3.3     Manufacturing By Company......................................................................................................

           3.3.1 Major Polysilicon Producers.............................................................................................
           3.3.2 Emerging Polysilicon Manufacturers...................................................................................
           3.3.3 Wafer Manufacturer Expansions.......................................................................................
           3.3.4 Top Twenty Crystalline Silicon Cell Manufacturers...............................................................
           3.3.5 Cell Manufacturer Growth Plans.......................................................................................
           3.3.6 Top Thin Film Cell Manufacturers.....................................................................................
           3.3.7 Thin Film Manufacturer Growth Plans................................................................................
                   (a) Thin Film Silicon
                   (b) Copper Indium Diselenide and Derivatives
                   (c) Other Thin Films
           3.3.8 Thin Film Investment Finance Raised In 2006.....................................................................


3.4  Technology Issues ...................................................................................................................

          3.4.1 Polysilicon Production Technology Options.........................................................................
          3.4.2 Wafer Technology.........................................................................................................
                  (a) Conventional Wafer Technologies
                  (b) Ribbon Technologies
                  (c) "Spheral Silicon"
                  (d) Re-Using Scrap Silicon
          3.4.3 Thin Films....................................................................................................................


   4.      2006: The Year in Review
141

4.1    Main Corporate Funding Activities.............................................................................................         

4.2    Main Corporate Acquisitions/Divestments...................................................................................

4.3    Industry Progress on Crystalline Module Efficiencies.....................................................................

4.4    Industry Progress on Manufacturing Unit Costs...........................................................................

4.5    Major Industry Events 2006....................................................................................................


   5.       Prices Through the PV Business Chain
151


5.1 Polysilicon Pricing ...................................................................................................................

         5.1.1 Commercial Environment...............................................................................................
         5.1.2 Polysilicon Manufacturers: The Seller's Position.................................................................
         5.1.3 Wafer and Cell Manufacturers: The Buyer's Position ..........................................................
         5.1.4 The Sellers and Buyers: In Bed Together for the Long Term ...............................................
         5.1.5 "Spot" and Short-Term Pricing ......................................................................................
         5.1.6 Term Contract Pricing..................................................................................................

5.2 Wafer Prices..........................................................................................................................

5.3 Crystalline Silicon Cell Prices.....................................................................................................

5.4 Module Factory Gate Prices .....................................................................................................
          a) Europe ........................................................................................................................
          b) United States ...............................................................................................................
          c) Japan .........................................................................................................................

5.5 PV Chain Summary..................................................................................................................

5.6 Retail PV Module Prices (Excluding Japan) ..................................................................................    

          5.6.1   Methodology............................................................................................................
          5.6.2   Survey Profile...........................................................................................................
          5.6.3   Regional Price Analysis by Power Segment.....................................................................
                   a) Module Power Bands
                   b) European Prices By Power Band
                   c) US Prices By Power Band
                   d) European versus US Prices on Equivalent Basis
          5.6.4   Company Price Analysis: Average Retail Prices by Manufacturer.........................................
                   (a)  125 Watt Modules and Above
                   (b)  Monthly Price Moves          
          5.6.5 New Solar Module Models on the Survey ........................................................................

5.7 Worldwide Large PV Installed System Prices.................................................................................

          5.7.1 European PV Installed System Prices..............................................................................
          5.7.2 Japanese PV Installed System Prices .............................................................................
                    i) Commercial Project Prices
                    ii) Residentil System Prices
          5.7.3 United States PV Installed System Prices........................................................................



   6.       Annual Market Survey of PV Dealers and System Integrators*
204


6.1       Profile of Survey Participants.............................................................................................

6.2       PV Market Performance in 2006..........................................................................................

6.3       Present Commercial Environment........................................................................................

6.4       2007 Market Expectations.................................................................................................

* this year's survey is based on the responses of Dealers and System Integrators
   received between January 17 - February 11, 2007.

   click here to see full list of Survey Questions


   7.        PV Supply/Demand Five Year Forecast Scenarios (2007-2011)
222


7.1  Key Messages From PV Market Performance In 2006.....................................................................

           7.1.1 Demonstrating Economic Convergence..........................................................................
           7.1.2 Feed-In Tariffs - The Evidence From Germany................................................................
           7.1.3 The Spread of Feed-In Tariffs Across Europe..................................................................
           7.1.4 Uncertain Times Ahead...............................................................................................
           7.1.5 Evolving Incentives To Fit Market Development...............................................................
           7.1.6 The Rate of Manufacturing Expansion............................................................................
           7.1.7 When The Supply Constraint Eases...............................................................................

7.2 Forecast Scenarios..................................................................................................................

           7.2.1 Demonstrating Economic Convergence...........................................................................
           7.2.2 Feed-In Tariffs - The Evidence From Germany.................................................................
           7.2.3 The Market Drivers ....................................................................................................
           7.2.4 The New Scenario Approach .......................................................................................
           7.2.5 Solarbuzz 5 Year Scenarios (2007-2011)........................................................................
                  (a) BALANCED ENERGY SCENARIO
                  (b) GREEN WORLD SCENARIO
                  (c) PRODUCTION LED SCENARIO
                  (d) Scenario Summary

7.3 Supply Position 2007-2011........................................................................................................
  
            7.3.1 Status Of Supply Streams Into The PV Business Chain In 2006-2007..................................
            7.3.2 Silicon Supply Forecast 2007-2011...............................................................................
                  (a) Polysilicon Manufacturers' Expansion Plans
                  (b) Headline vs. Risked Polysilicon Capacity Projection


7.4 Silicon Supply/Demand Balance 2007-2011....................................................................................

            7.4.1 Semiconductor Demand For Polysilicon 2007-2011............................................................
            7.4.2 Solar Demand For Polysilicon 2007-2011.........................................................................
            7.4.3 Overall Silicon Supply/Demand 2007-2011.......................................................................
            7.4.4 Cell Production Forecast 2007-2011...............................................................................
            7.4.5 Cell Manufacturing Capacity 2007-2011..........................................................................
            7.4.6 Crystalline Silicon Cell Supply Forecast 2007-2011............................................................
            7.4.7 Thin Film Supply Forecast 2007-2011.............................................................................
            7.4.8 Capital Investment Levels For Capacity Expansion Through Chain........................................


7.5  Market Scenario Forecasts........................................................................................................

            7.5.1 World Market Demand.................................................................................................
            7.5.2 Summary of Regional Market Demand Outcomes 2007-2011................................................
                    a) Germany
                    b) Japan
                    c) United States
                    d) Rest of Europe
                    e) Rest of World

7.6 Global Price Environment and Industry Revenues ............................................................................

            7.6.1 PV Price and Margin Movements ...................................................................................
            7.6.2 Learning Curve Correlation ..........................................................................................
            7.6.3 Forecast Scenario Industry Outcomes ...........................................................................
            7.6.4 Movement in Regional Factory Gate Module Prices ...........................................................
                   (a) Europe
                   (b) United States
                   (c) Japan

7.7 Integration of Supply/Demand Forecasts ......................................................................................
     
            7.7.1 The Market Equation ..................................................................................................
            7.7.2 The Corporate Equation ..............................................................................................
                   (a) The 2007 Balance
                   (b) Forecast Period (2007 - 2011)









   Appendix................................................................................................................................................                
   Charts and Tables  

 MARKETBUZZ™ 2007 REPORT PRICE:    $3,950 for CD Rom version  (three thousand, nine hundred and fifty dollars)
.
  TO ORDER  
 E Mail: admin@solarbuzz.com
 Telephone: North America :          + 1 415 928 9743 (San Francisco, United States)
Europe:
                    + 44 1483 764203 (London, United Kingdom)
Asia/Pacific:
             + 61 2 99499023 (Sydney, Australia)
Content Outline

© 2008 Solarbuzz, LLC. All rights reserved