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5
Year Forecast
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Solarbuzz
Reports World Solar Photovoltaic Market Grew to 7.3* Gigawatt
in 2009
World
solar photovoltaic (PV) market** installations reached a record
high of 7.3 gigawatt (GW)* in 2009, representing growth of 20%
over the previous year.
The
PV industry generated $38.5 billion in global revenues in 2009,
while successfully raising over $13.5 billion in equity and debt,
up 8% on the prior year.
European
countries accounted for 5.60 GW, or 77% of world demand in 2009.
The top three countries in Europe were Germany, Italy and Czech
Republic, which collectively accounted for 4.07 GW. All three
countries experienced soaring demand, with Italy becoming the
second largest market in the world.
In
contrast, Spanish demand in 2009 collapsed to just 4% of its prior
year level.
Of
total European demand, net solar cell imports accounted for 74%
of the total.
The
third largest market in the world was the United States, which
grew 36% to 485 MW. Following closely behind was a rejuvenated
Japan, which took fourth spot, growing 109%.
The
analysis in the new Marketbuzz 2010 report references 112 countries
across the world in 2009.
World
solar cell production reached a consolidated figure of 9.34 GW
in 2009, up from 6.85 GW a year earlier, with thin film production
accounting for 18% of that total. China and Taiwanese production
continued to build share and now account for 49% of global cell
production.
The
Top 7 polysilicon manufacturers had 114,500 tonnes per annum of
capacity in 2009, up 92% on their 2008 level, while the Top 8
wafer manufacturers accounted for 32.9% of global wafer capacity
in 2009.
The
excess of solar cell production over market demand caused weighted
crystalline silicon module price average for 2009 to crash 38%
over the prior year level. This reduction in crystalline silicon
prices also had the effect of eroding their percentage premium
to thin film factory gate pricing.
Looking
forward, the industry will return to high growth in 2010 and also
over the next 5 years. Even in the slowest growth scenario, the
global market will be 2.5 times its current size by 2014. Under
the Production Led scenario***, the fastest growing forecast,
annual industry revenues approach $100 billion by 2014.
After
providing a comprehensive look back at 2009 industry results,
the new Marketbuzz™ 2010 report devotes one third of its
content to 2010 - 2014 forecast outcomes, including a thorough
preview of market developments, policies, prices and production
requirements, which will be essential to help shape corporate
strategies over this period. Manufacturing costs, gross margins
and capital expenditure profiles are also addressed.
Click here for Marketbuzz® 2010 content
outline and listing of figures
and tables.
*
revised to 7.5 GW in June 2010
** "Market" is defined as annual installations (not
cumulaive) and is based as"delivered to end user site".
This includes "connected" and "un-connected"
installations.
*** Solarbuzz utilizes three forecast scenarios "BALANCED
ENERGY", "GREEN WORLD", "PRODUCTION LED"
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*
2009
PV DEMAND BY MAJOR
MARKET
*
COUNTRY PV POLICY STATUS
*
MARKET SIZES (2005 - 2009)
*
INTEGRATION OF WORLD PV
SUPPLY WITH MARKET DEMAND
*
COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW OF
SILICON FEEDSTOCK
SUPPLY POSITION
*
2009 SOLAR CELL PRODUCTION
*
ANALYSIS OF SOLAR CELL
IMPORTS/EXPORTS BY REGION
*
SOLAR CELL MANUFACTURING
CAPACITIES VERSUS
PRODUCTION
* 2009 SILICON WAFER CAPACITY
* INDUSTRY CRYSTALLINE SILICON
MODULE EFFICIENCY INDEX
* PV PRICES IN ALL PARTS
OF THE PV CHAIN
* PRICE COMPARISON OF SOLAR
MODULE MODELS
* MOVEMENT IN POLYSILCON
LONG TERM, SHORT TERM,
SPOT PRICES
* MAJOR 2009 SUPPLY CONTRACTS
LISTING FOR POLYSILICON,
WAFERS AND CELLS
* CAPITAL/DEBT RAISED
BY THE PV INDUSTRY
* MANUFACTURING CHAIN
CAPEX, COSTS, MARGINS
(2009 - 2014)
* POLYSILICON CAPACITY GROWTH
REQUIREMENT
(2009 - 2014)
* WORLD PV SUPPLY, DEMAND
AND PRICE SCENARIOS
(2010 - 2014)
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