| US
GRID CONNECT PV MARKET REPORT 2008: 2007 Market Outcomes;
2008-2012 Scenario Forecast |
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PAGES
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SECTION
1
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EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY ..................................................................................................... |
11
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SECTION
2
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GRID
CONNECT PV MARKET IN 2007................................................................................... |
17
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2.1
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2007
Market .................................................................................................................. |
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2.1.1 Introduction............................................................................................................
2.1.2 Total Market Size By Market Segment..........................................................................
2.1.3 Grid Connect Analysis By System Power........................................................................
2.1.4 Grid Connect Analysis By Customer Type.......................................................................
2.1.5 Grid Connect Analysis By Region..................................................................................
2.1.6 Grid Connect Analysis By Application Surface.................................................................
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2.2
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Market
Segments............................................................................................................ |
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2.2.1 Residential Retrofit ...................................................................................................
2.2.2 Residential New Build.................................................................................................
2.2.3 Corporate Segment...................................................................................................
2.2.4 Government (including Military)...................................................................................
2.2.5 Utility ....................................................................................................................
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2.3
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Commercial
Project Financing ......................................................................................... |
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2.3.1
Introduction ...........................................................................................................
2.3.2 Growing Financial Community Interest
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2.3.3 PPA Funded Projects in 2007 and 2008 ........................................................................
2.3.4 Commercial Terms/Prices of PPA Agreements.................................................................
2.3.5
Project Descriptions and PPA Contract Commercial Terms.................................................
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2.4
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Residential
Project Financing .......................................................
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SECTION
3
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FISCAL
INCENTIVE STATUS.............................................................................................. |
77-118
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3.1
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Introduction...................................................................................................................
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3.1.1 Introduction ...........................................................................................................
3.1.2 Upfront Capacity based Rebates ................................................................................
a) Residential
Systems .............................................................................................
b) Non
Residential Systems .......................................................................................
3.1.3 Production Based Incentives ......................................................................................
3.1.4 Major Changes in State Incentive Programs...................................................................
a) Program
Terms ....................................................................................................
b) New
Programs Introduced and Announced in 2007 and 2008 ........................................
c) Other
Potential New Programs in 2008 .....................................................................
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3.2
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Program
Funding and Market Impact................................................................................ |
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3.2.1 Federal ..................................................................................................................
i) Clean Renewable Energy
Bonds ..................................................................................
ii) Federal: Solar America
Initiatives (SAI) .......................................................................
3.2.2 States ...................................................................................................................
i)
Introduction ......................................................................................................
ii)
California .........................................................................................................
a)
Emerging Renewables Program (1998 - 2006) .............................................
b)
California Self Generation Incentive Program (2001 - 2006)
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c)
California Solar Initiative (2007-2016) ......................................................
i)
Investor Owned Utilities (IOU) .......................................................
ii)
Publicly Owned Utilities ................................................................
iii)
California New Solar Homes Partnership ...........................................
d)
Other California Energy Commission Programs .............................................
i)
Pilot Performance Based Incentive Program .......................................
ii)
Affordable Housing ......................................................................
iii)
Solar Schools Program .................................................................
iii)
New Jersey .....................................................................................................
iv)
Other States ...................................................................................................
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| SECTION
4 |
FEDERAL
AND REGULATORY ISSUES................................................................................... |
119-158
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4.1
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Federal
Renewable Portfolio Standard Initiatives............................................................... |
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4.2
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State
Renewable Portfolio Standards Developments 2006 - 2007........................................ |
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4.2.1 Introduction ...........................................................................................................
4.2.2 Changes in State RPS Policies Over The Last 18
Months .................................................
a) New in 2007
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b) Changed/Revised
in 2007 .......................................................................................
c) New in 2008
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d) Changed/Revised
in 2008 .......................................................................................
4.2.3 Type of RPS Structures ............................................................................................
a) Set Asides
for PV .................................................................................................
b) Penalties and
Enforcement Mechanisms ....................................................................
c) Renewable
Energy Credits for Compliance Market .......................................................
d) New Jersey SREC
Financing ....................................................................................
4.2.4 PV Installed Capacity as a Result of Full Implementation
of RPS Solar Set Asides ................
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4.3
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Net
Metering................................................................................................................... |
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4.3.1 Net Metering Overview .............................................................................................
4.3.2 Main Policy Changes in 2007 and Early 2008 .................................................................
a)
New Net Metering States ...............................................................................
b)
Modifications to Existing Net Metering States .....................................................
c)
Potential Upcoming Changes ...........................................................................
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4.4
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Tax
Credit Status............................................................................................................ |
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4.4.1 Federal Tax Credit ...................................................................................................
4.4.2 State Tax Credits Overview .......................................................................................
i)
Residential State Tax Credit ...................................................................................
ii)
Corporate State Tax Incentives .............................................................................
iii)
Possible Changes in 2008 .....................................................................................
iv)
Other State Tax Incentives ..................................................................................
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SECTION
5
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ELECTRICITY
TARIFFS AND STRUCTURES........................................................................... |
159
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5.1
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Introduction................................................................................................................... |
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5.2
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2007
Electricity Market by State....................................................................................... |
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5.3
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Electricity
Rate Structures............................................................................................... |
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5.4
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Time
of Use (TOU) Tariff Rates......................................................................................... |
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5.5
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PV Economics with TOU Versus Standard Rates................................................................. |
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5.6
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Future
Electricity Rate Trends ......................................................................................... |
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SECTION
6
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DOWNSTREAM
CHANNEL VOLUMES in 2007........................................................................ |
173
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6.1
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Market
Channel Structure and Volumes............................................................................ |
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6.2
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Module
Suppliers Market Shares (Residential/Non Residential).......................................... |
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6.3
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Inverter
Suppliers Market
Shares.................................................................................... |
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6.3.1 Commercial Inverters .............................................................................................
6.3.2 Residential Inverters ..............................................................................................
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6.4
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Characteristics
of the Module Suppliers........................................................................... |
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6.4.1 Distributor Mergers and Acquisitions .........................................................................
6.4.2. Distributor Shipments ...........................................................................................
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6.5
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Module
Supplier/Distributor Affiliations........................................................................... |
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6.5.1 Non Residential .....................................................................................................
a) 2007 Installations ...........................................................................................
b) 2008 Market and Beyond ..................................................................................
c) Module Suppliers to Largest California Non Residential
System Integrators
for 2007 Installations .....................................................................................
6.5.2 Residential ..........................................................................................................
a) 2007 Installations ..........................................................................................
b) 2008 Market and Beyond ................................................................................
c) Module Suppliers to Largest California Residential System
Integrators
for
2007 Installations .....................................................................................
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6.6
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Downstream
Corporate Mergers and Acquisitions............................................................ |
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6.7
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Downstream
Capital Raised........................................................................................... |
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SECTION
7
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MARKET
PRICING AND PV COMPONENT VOLUMES IN 2007.................................................. |
197
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7.1
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Pricing
Environment ..................................................................................................... |
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7.2
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System
Installed Pricing............................................................................................... |
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7.2.1 National Pricing ...................................................................................................
7.2.2 Regional Pricing ...................................................................................................
7.2.3 Commercial Project Pricing .....................................................................................
7.2.4 Installed Residential System Pricing .........................................................................
7.2.5 California Installed Residential System
Pricing By Module Product Line ............................
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7.3
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Solar
Module Pricing - Factory Gate .............................................................................. |
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7.4
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Residential
and Small Commercial Inverter Factory Gate Prices by Power
Band................ |
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7.5
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Module/Inverter
Model Volumes in 2007....................................................................... |
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7.5.1 Solar Module Models: Residential .............................................................................
7.5.2 Solar Module Models: California CSI Program Non-Residential
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7.5.3 Inverter Models: Residential ...................................................................................
7.5.4 Inverter Models: Non Residential .............................................................................
7.5.5 Inverter Models: 2008 Reservations .........................................................................
a) California
Residential .........................................................................................
b) California
Non Residential ...................................................................................
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SECTION
8
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2007/08
DOWNSTREAM HIGHLIGHTS............................................................................. |
215
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SECTION
9
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MARKET
FORECAST (2008 - 2012)................................................................................. |
220
- 260
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9.1
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Introduction............................................................................................................... |
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9.2
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Global
and Domestic Scenarios.................................................................................... |
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