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US
GRID CONNECT PV MARKET REPORT 2009: 2008
Market Outcomes;
2009 -2013 Scenario Forecast |
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PAGES
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Executive
Summary |
11
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2.1
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2008
Market |
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2.1.1 Introduction.........................................................................................................................................
2.1.2 Total Market Size By Market Segment.......................................................................................................
2.1.3 Grid Connect Analysis By System Power.....................................................................................................
2.1.4 Grid Connect Analysis By Customer Type....................................................................................................
2.1.5 Grid Connect Analysis By State ...............................................................................................................
2.1.6 Grid Connect Analysis By Application Surface..............................................................................................
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2.2
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Market
Segment Sizes and Project Activity |
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2.2.1 Residential Retrofit ................................................................................................................................
2.2.2 Residential New Build..............................................................................................................................
2.2.3 Corporate Segment................................................................................................................................
2.2.4 Government (including Military)................................................................................................................
2.2.5 Utility .................................................................................................................................................
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2.3
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Project Financing |
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2.3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................
2.3.2 PPA Funded Projects in 2008 and First Half 2009
........................................................................................
2.3.3 Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) Contract Review
and Deal Terms*..............................................................
2.3.4 2008/2009 Projects and PPA Contract Commercial
Terms .............................................................................
2.3.5 Commercial Segment Financiers...............................................................................................................
2.3.6 Residential Segment Financiers................................................................................................................
* start prices c/kWh and escalators
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2.4
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Residential
Project Financing |
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PV
Incentive Programs and Terms |
77-118
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3.1
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Major
Funding Programs
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3.1.1 Federal..............................................................................................................................................
a) Clean Renewable Energy
Bonds .............................................................................................................
b) Solar America Initiative
(SAI)................................................................................................................
c) Solar America Showcases
...................................................................................................................
d) Solar America Cities
...........................................................................................................................
3.1.2 State and Utility Funding Programs.........................................................................................................
a) Overview .........................................................................................................................................
b) California .........................................................................................................................................
i) Emerging Renewables Program ......................................................................................................
ii) California Solar Initiative (2007-2016)............................................................................................
Investor Owned Utilities (IOU)...............................................................................................
Public Owned Utilities (POU) .................................................................................................
New Solar Homes Partnership ...............................................................................................
Other California Energy Commission Programs...........................................................................
Pilot Performance Based Incentive Program .............................................................................
c) New Jersey ......................................................................................................................................
d) 2008 Key State Program
Summary ........................................................................................................
3.1.3 City Incentive Initiatives.......................................................................................................................
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3.2
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Incentive
Program Structures |
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3.2.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................
3.2.2 Upfront Capacity-based Rebates ...........................................................................................................
a) Residential Systems.......................................................................................................................
b) Non-Residential Systems.................................................................................................................
3.2.3
Production Based Incentives .................................................................................................................
a) Overview ....................................................................................................................................
b) Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) Purchasing ..................................................................................
c) Feed-in Tariff Programs .................................................................................................................
3.2.4
Major Changes in State Incentive Programs Over the Last
12 Months ...........................................................
a) Changes in Existing Program Terms ..................................................................................................
b) New Incentive Programs Introduced and Announced in 2008
and 2009 ...................................................
c) Potential New Programs in 2009 ......................................................................................................
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3.3
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New
Financing Programs |
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3.4
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Tax
Credits |
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3.4.1 Federal.............................................................................................................................................
a)
Investment Tax Credit..................................................................................................................
b)
Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS) ........................................................................
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3.4.2 State Tax Credits................................................................................................................................
a) Residential State Tax Credit ..........................................................................................................
b) Corporate State Tax Incentives .....................................................................................................
c) State Sales Tax Incentives ...........................................................................................................
d) State Property Tax Incentives .......................................................................................................
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Federal
and Regulatory Issues |
119-158
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4.1
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Federal
Renewable Portfolio Standard Initiatives |
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4.2
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State
Renewable Portfolio Standards Developments 2008 - 2009 |
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4.2.1 Introduction .....................................................................................................................................
4.2.2 Changes in State RPS Policies Over The Last 18
Months ...........................................................................
a) New in 2007
..................................................................................................................................
b) Changed/Revised
in 2007 .................................................................................................................
c) New in 2008
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d) Changed/Revised
in 2008 .................................................................................................................
4.2.3 Solar Set-Asides................................................................................................................................
a) Solar Technologies
in Set-Asides........................................................................................................
b) Concentrated
Solar Power (CSP) Developments Toward RPS....................................................................
c) Large PV
Projects Toward Solar Set-Aside............................................................................................
d) Projected PV
Installed Capacity with RPS Solar Set-Asides......................................................................
4.2.4 California RPS Compliant Solar Projects .................................................................................................
4.2.5 Penalties and Enforcement Mechanisms..................................................................................................
4.2.6 Renewable Energy Credits (REC) for Compliance
Market.............................................................................
4.2.7 New Jersey SREC Financing..................................................................................................................
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4.3
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Net
Metering |
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4.3.1 Net Metering Overview ......................................................................................................................
4.3.2 Maximum Individual System Capacity ...................................................................................................
4.3.3 Total Program Capacity Limit ..............................................................................................................
4.3.4 Treatment of Net Excess Generation ....................................................................................................
4.3.5 Customer Eligibility ............................................................................................................................
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4.4
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Main
Policy Changes in 2008 and Early 2009 |
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4.4.1 Modifications to Existing Net Metering Policies
by States............................................................................
4.4.2 New Net Metering States.....................................................................................................................
4.4.3
Potential Upcoming Changes in 2009......................................................................................................
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Electricity
Tariffs and Structures |
159
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5.1
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Introduction |
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5.2
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2008
Electricity Rates by State in 2008 |
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5.3
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Electricity
Rate Structures |
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5.4
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Time
of Use (TOU) Tariff Rates |
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5.5
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Future
Electricity Rate Trends |
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Downstream
Channel Structure and Volumes in 2008 |
173
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6.1
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Market
Channel Structure and Volumes |
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6.2
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Module
Suppliers Market Shares (Residential/Non Residential) |
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6.3
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Inverter
Suppliers Market
Shares |
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6.3.1 Commercial Inverters ...........................................................................................................................
6.3.2 Residential Inverters ............................................................................................................................
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6.4
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Distributors
(Wholesalers) |
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6.4.1 Distributor Mergers and Acquisitions
(2007 - 2009) ...................................................................................
6.4.2. Major Distributor Shipments by Company
in 2008 .....................................................................................
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6.5
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System
Integrators |
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6.5.1 Non-Residential .................................................................................................................................
a)
2008 Installations..........................................................................................................................
b)
Module Supplier Shares of Largest Non-Residential System Integrators
in 2008 ..........................................
c)
2009 Market and Beyond ................................................................................................................
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6.5.2 Residential ........................................................................................................................................
a)
2008 Installations ..........................................................................................................................
b)
Module Supplier Shares of Largest Residential System Integrators
in 2008 ................................................
c)
2009 Market and Beyond ................................................................................................................
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6.6
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Downstream
Corporate Mergers and Acquisitions |
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6.7
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Capital
Raised by Downstream Companies |
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Prices
and Solar Module/Inverter Volumes in 2008 |
197
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7.1
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2008/1H
2009 Pricing Environment |
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7.2
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Installed
PV System Pricing |
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7.2.1 National Pricing ................................................................................................................................
7.2.2 Regional Pricing ................................................................................................................................
7.2.3 Commercial Project Pricing ..................................................................................................................
7.2.4 Installed Residential System Pricing ......................................................................................................
7.2.5 California Installed Residential System
Pricing By Module Product Line ..........................................................
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7.3
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Solar
Module Factory Gate Pricing (2008 - 1H 2009) |
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7.4
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Residential
and Small Commercial Inverter Factory Gate Prices (1H 2008
vs 1H 2009) |
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7.5
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Module/Inverter
Model Volumes in 2008 |
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7.5.1 Solar Module Models ............................................................................................................................
a) Certifications
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b) Volumes
by Model............................................................................................................................
California
Residential: Module Model Installations in 2008 .......................................................................
California Residential: 2009 Installs and Reservations at
April 2009 ..........................................................
California Non-Residential: Module Model Installations in
2008 ................................................................
California Non Residential: 2009 Installs and Reservations
at April 2009 ....................................................
7.5.2 Solar Module Models ............................................................................................................................
a) Certifications
.................................................................................................................................
b) Volumes
by Model............................................................................................................................
California
Residential: Module Model Installations in 2008 .......................................................................
California Residential: 2009 Installs and Reservations at
April 2009 ..........................................................
California Non-Residential: Module Model Installations in
2008.................................................................
California Non Residential: 2009 Installs and Reservations
at April 2009
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7.5.3 Solar Module Models: California CSI Program Non-Residential
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7.5.4 Inverter Model Volumes: Residential .......................................................................................................
7.5.5 Inverter Models Volumes Non Residential .................................................................................................
7.5.6 Inverter Models Volumes 2009 Reservations .............................................................................................
a)
California Residential .......................................................................................................................
b)
California Non Residential .................................................................................................................
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2008/09
Downstream Market Highlights |
215
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US
Market Forecast (2009 - 2013) |
220
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9.1
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Global
and Domestic Scenarios |
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9.2
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Demand
Outcomes |
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9.2.1 National Market Demand ......................................................................................................................
9.2.2 Market Demand By Segment .................................................................................................................
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9.3
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Market
Prices |
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9.3.1 Factory Gate Module Prices .................................................................................................................
9.3.2 Installed PV System Prices ..................................................................................................................
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9.4
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Renewable
Portfolio Standard Driven Market Demand (2009 - 2013) |
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9.4.1 Solar Set-Aside Driven Market..............................................................................................................
9.4.2 Utility-Owned DG Projects Toward RPS...................................................................................................
9.4.3 Utility-Scaled Projects Toward RPS........................................................................................................
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9.5
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Status
of Market Segment Economics |
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9.5.1 Introduction .....................................................................................................................................
9.5.2 Economic Analysis for Top State Markets................................................................................................
9.5.3 Economic Analysis of Incentives for Top State
Markets .............................................................................
a)
Residential ............................................................................................................................
b) Non-Residential ......................................................................................................................
9.5.4 Sensitivity Analysis by Top State Markets................................................................................................
9.5.5 Emerging Grid Parity ............................................................................................................................
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9.6
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American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act |
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9.6.1 Renewable Loan Guarantees ...............................................................................................................
9.6.2 Federal High-Performance Green Building by General
Services Administration ................................................
9.6.3 Renewable Energy Grants ...................................................................................................................
9.6.4 Repealing Penalty for Subsidizing Renewable Energy
Financing ...................................................................
9.6.5 Expanded Clean Energy Bonds (CREBs) ..................................................................................................
9.6.6 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block
Grants (DOE) ............................................................................
9.6.7 State Energy Program (DOE) ...............................................................................................................
9.6.8 Extended Bonus Depreciation for Commercial Installations
.........................................................................
9.6.9 Department of Interior Recovery Investment ..........................................................................................
9.6.10 Department of Defense Fund .............................................................................................................
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9.7
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Unrisked
National Order Book
by Project |
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9.8
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US
Market Summary |
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