By Charles Annis, Vice President
The polysilicon manufacturing industry is global. 
Top-tier manufacturers have factories in China, Germany, Japan, Korea and the U.S. But the solar wafer industry has now become dominated by Chinese manufacturers. According to Solarbuzz’s Q1’12 Polysilicon and Wafer Supply Chain Quarterly Report, China will account for 76% of all solar wafer production and thus the majority of polysilicon demand in 2012.
Source: NPD Solarbuzz Polysilicon and Wafer Supply Chain Quarterly
These differences between regional polysilicon production and demand mean that China is the most important market for top-tier poly manufacturers such as Wacker, Hemlock, REC, MEMC, OCI and Tokuyama.
Foreign imports of polysilicon into China vary substantially month-to-month, but as shown below are substantial and continue to trend upward.
Source: Chinese Customs Data
Imports of polysilicon from the U.S. to China are substantial, given that the U.S. is second only to China in polysilicon production and have been increasing this year. Chinese customs data also suggests that U.S.-sourced polysilicon prices have fallen rapidly since the end of last year, making it the cheapest available feedstock. In March, polysilicon shipped from the U.S. to China was $4.4/Kg less than the average import price.
Chinese manufacturers are exasperated by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s preliminary determination of cell and module dumping against them. And with all but the lowest cost Chinese polysilicon manufacturers stopping production due to continuously falling prices, Chinese makers have been filing petitions asking their government to impose anti-dumping tariffs against U.S. and other foreign polysilicon producers. The final verdict is still out on all allegations of solar industry dumping, but the China PV Industry Alliance will likely utilize recent polysilicon import and pricing data to try to bolster its case. If China does impose punitive tariffs on imports, it could make U.S. producers less competitive in the largest market for polysilicon.
